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| Reverse Implied Odds |
Poker players seeking to advance their abilities would do well to study the concept of reverse implied odds. Despite the mathematical sounding name, it is not much of a math concept at all, and the ability for a judgment player to intuit when reverse implied odds are high will pay much greater dividends than the math expert who can calculate them to the penny.
Related Terms
Pot odds can best be described as “how much chance do I have to win and is the pot (reward) worth taking the risk?”
Pot equity, similarly, is “how much of that pot am I entitled to, and what is my best course to maximize my potential?”
Implied odds follow the outlook “how much potential reward can I gain for a certain risk now?”
Reverse Implied Odds
Reverse implied odds are just the opposite of implied odds: “how much trouble can I get into?” There are four times reverse implied odds come into play, and all can be bad.
The first comes when you have no chance to improve, but an opponent does. If you flopped a straight, and your opponent's bets and calls lead you to believe she is likely on a flush draw, you have a non-zero amount of reverse implied odds. You can't improve your hand, but your opponent can improve hers (to a winner). More advanced pot equity calculations can be used by the player to best handle the situation, but those are beyond the scope of this article.
The second common situation where reverse implied odds come into play is when you are drawing to a card that will improve your hand, but improve your opponent's even more. If you hold 99, on a flop of QJ8, you have an inside straight draw, but if the ten comes, someone holding AK or K9 will have you beat. You can get into a lot of trouble in that situation.
The third situation where reverse implied odds must be considered is in preflop hand selection. Playing a weaker starting hand, you must always carefully consider what could happen to you. If you hold QJ, catch a jack on the flop, you can be in serious trouble if an opponent holds AJ or KJ. It is true that there are a certain amount of (positive) implied odds with a hand like that – the possibility of flopping Q J x versus someone holding AQ or KQ means you could get paid off in a big way – but you must temper that with the (negative) reverse implied odds inherent in getting involved with a hand like QJ.
The fourth situation with high reverse implied odds (and by far the worst) is the freeroll. In a Texas holdem game, if you are holding A - Hearts K - Hearts on a Q - Club J - Club T - Diamond board, and your opponent has A - Club K - Club, you are getting freerolled. You both have the best hand, but your opponent has a chance to get an even better hand. This is much more common in Omaha games than Texas holdem, and is a significant part of Omaha strategy.
Situations one and four describe times where we are happy with our hand, but must hope against a draw coming in for our opponent. Situations two and three are perfect examples of “be careful what you wish for – you just might get it!”
Recognizing times when reverse implied odds against you are high is one of the better ways to advance as a poker player. Although making such precise reads on your foes is not always possible, especially in relatively short stack situations, there are steps you can take to reduce the impact. Properly controlling the size of the pot in big bet games (pot limit holdem, pot limit Omaha, and no limit holdem, for example) can help good players offset the possible negative returns in high reverse implied odds situations.
All poker players should have a basic understanding of math concepts as part of their arsenal. Without it, you can never advance to the very top echelons of the game. The best part of this concept for math-fearing poker players is that recognizing the situations requires few calculations if any, and can usually be done purely on intuition.
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Poker News Today.com © 2007 Reverse Implied Odds
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