Pot Odds And Hand Distributions

When discussing pot odds and poker hand odds, it is most commonly in the context of whether to continue with a hand based on your likelihood of winning the hand vs. the odds the pot offers. The problem with this is that sometimes it requires knowing what your opponent holds. It is difficult to know exactly what your opponent is holding, which is why hand distributions are so important.

Pot Odds Without Hand Distribution

If you hold the Ah Kh and the board is Th 4h 3s, it doesn’t matter that much what your opponent holds. If he bets, you can be confident that you have at least nine outs to beat your opponent, probably 15. You can use this information to calculate your odds of winning the hand and compare them to the pot odds to know whether you should call your opponent’s bet.

Pot Odds Needing Hand Distribution

However, what if you hold KT in this situation, or 8h 9h? Now it may not be so clear if you have the best hand or if you are drawing to improve to the next hand.

This is where hand distributions come into play. Based on what you know about your opponent and his prior actions, you must determine his most likely holdings.

You may decide he will have AT 50 percent of the time, an overpair 10 percent of the time and a flush draw 40 percent of the time. You should now calculate your outs and winning chances against each hand in the range and take a weighted average based on the above calculation. This is the number you will compare to the pot odds to determine how to proceed.

More on Hand Distributions

It is difficult if not impossible to come up with exact figures in the heat of battle. However, you can come up with some rough estimates that will help you with your decisions. In addition, you can practice with poker software applications like PokerStove that allow you to input hand ranges and see the likely winning percentage against various common holdings.

News Added: 30 January, 2009

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