Bets on poker and fund management

Strategy improves odds of generating profits through time

Competition poker has become the latest global craze. The surge in popularity coincides with the advent of the lipstick camera, that allows viewers at home to see the cards of the players as the hands unfold.





This, and the remarkable sums of money at stake have made poker a popular spectator sport. Having always been firmly against gambling (to the point where I have never even bought a lottery ticket), I had simply assumed that poker was another means for the statistically challenged to give away their hard-earned money to casinos.

To my surprise it turns out that professional poker players are not gamblers. When playing professional poker, you are not pitted against the casino, but rather against your competitors.


So, like active investment fund management, poker is also a zero-sum game. In order to win, good players must inflict their profits as losses on their competitors. To do this consistently they have to be more skilled than their fellow players.


Interestingly, like top fund managers, good professional poker players generate significant profits over longer periods, but have mixed results over shorter periods as there is a random element (or luck) to the cards dealt. It is skill that differentiates the successful from the unsuccessful players over the long term.

The great players can make lucrative careers of poker, simply because they are more skilled than the competitors.


A similar trend exists in fund management. Although, over shorter periods of time, even the most successful fund managers underperform the market, they tend to float to the top over a longer time frame.


It is for this reason that I do not advocate the comparison of fund manager performances over short periods of time — a full market cycle would be the minimum period worth considering.


The best poker players bet big when they have a high level of conviction in their hand. In this way they limit the losses on poor hands and make good gains on their strong hands.


Similarly, successful fund managers research the investments that they make, and take larger active positions when they are most sure of their facts.

This strategy improves the odds of generating profits through time.


Another characteristic of a successful poker player is their ability to ‘‘read” their opponents — who often try to bluff or purposefully misrepresent their hand — to improve their odds of a positive pay-off. As with fund management, they need to be smarter than their competitors. — Matthew De Wet is head of investments at Nedgroup Investments

The Times

News Added: 02 August, 2008

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