Poker: Think it through before making bet

How many good things can happen when you make a specific bet? How many bad things can happen?

Ask yourself those questions before you act, and have a good idea of the answers in the risk-reward game you are playing. The process is particularly important when facing a board of scare cards that could make bigger hands than the one you have.

In the World Poker Tour's $15,000-buy-in Five Diamond World Poker Classic in 2006, Barny Boatman was involved in a hand that showed the kind of thinking required.

With blinds at $50-$100, an early-position player raised to $300. Boatman called from middle position when he found pocket 8s. Two players saw a flop of 10-9-5, creating a board of flush and straight draws, as well as two overcards to Boatman's pair.

The original raiser checked. Boatman checked behind him. The turn came the 8 of hearts, giving Boatman a set but possibly completing a straight for his opponent.

The original raiser bet out $3,000, more than three times the amount in the pot.

"I'm thinking I like my position there because I've turned the set," Boatman said. "There's a lot of scary cards that can come on the end, but I'm thinking that in the end if I just call, he might put me on the stone bluff, and if he's on the draw and no drawing card comes, he might bet again."

Boatman called, and the river came the 7 of spades, potentially completing a flush and
putting up four cards to a straight, both of which would beat Boatman's set of 8s.
Boatman's opponent checked, forcing Boatman to weigh the benefits of attempting a value bet if he believed his hand was good.

"How many good things can happen if I bet on the end, and how good can they be compared to how many bad things can happen and how bad they can be?" Boatman said of his thought process. "I'm thinking that if I bet it, I'm only going to get action if I'm behind. If he made the straight on the river, he's going to check and call. He won't like the flush card, but he's going to call it.

"If I was to bet on the river, what would my reason be? I would get a call from a hand I wasn't beating. He bet $3,000 on the turn. If I bet $5,000 and he raises me $15,000 more, now I'm putting my tournament on the line."

So Boatman checked and showed his set. His opponent mucked.

By Steve Rosenbloom
Chicago Tribune

News Added: 07 March, 2008

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